Wisconsin - Andrew Snyder (TodaysFinancialNews.com) - If I were a General Motors (NYSE:GM) dealer, I would be holding onto every penny I have and praying it gets better. If I were a Toyota (NYSE:TM) dealer I would be saying, “So this is what it feels like to be from Detroit.”

But if I were a Harley Davidson (NYSE:HOG) dealer, oh boy, I would checking the value of my property and working my way into a new franchise. Even during a severe repression, consumers and businesses need new cars and trucks. But almost nobody can justify a must-have motorcycle.

Before I go any further, I have to tell you I hail from the town that hosts Harley’s largest manufacturing plant. And I have spent many nights studying the world of business and manufacturing operations with its engineers and managers. So I have the right to say what I am about to say.

http://www.brainbucketmag.com/News/article/sid=4513.html

Harley Davidson is in big trouble.

The Big Three may be getting the majority of the media’s attention, but the Milwaukee-based bike maker has many of the same problems. In fact, many of its problems, like demand for its motorcycles, are even worse.

First, Harley’s assembly line is filled with union workers. That means the same expensive labor costs and burdensome contracts that are destroying Detroit are pulling down Harley’s bottom line.

Sadly, if the company could afford to de-value its brand by moving operations offshore and cutting labor costs, I am positive it would have done it ages ago.

Borrowing a hog

We have all heard of the problems facing GM’s lending arm, GMAC. It is much the same at Harley, but bikes are even harder to finance and securitize. Lending is tight and the riders that do qualify for loans are paying higher interest rates.

Proving the difficulties of the current market, the company’s head of its financial services unit, Sy Naqvi, jumped ship last week and is headed for less stressful territory.

This news comes just less than a month after the company’s CEO, Jim Ziemer, announced he is leaving Harley. This turnover creates yet another major obstacle as the company moves forward.

All of this should be a sign that the world of chrome exhausts, leather jackets and oil puddles is not exactly revving up. As the Baby Boomer generation trades its bikes for wheelchairs, demand will slow even further.

The company has relied on its powerful brand for nearly a generation. As that brand power diminishes, shareholders will see the value of their company drop just as quickly.

Over the past 12 months, shares of the company have dropped from over $40 to under $14 today. The decline is not over. Just like a Honda at a Hog rally, this will not be pretty.

This article contributed by editor on Thursday, January 22, 2009 (02:50:24)

It is negative talk ..but deep underneath such negative talk is also a bit of truth

will they go out of business ..most likely not ... will they be the same company at the end of this financial strife ..again maybe not

there are enough people in america to keep this "institution" going ... maybe not new sales but offshoot sales at least

what this writer seems to overlook is the search by people for cheaper transport due to higher fuel costs ..motorbikes are one such means ..

It's a "wait and see" for lots of companies at the moment, survival of the fittest at the end of the day for most.

They will survive this downturn and now is the time to be buying cheap shares and sitting on them untill the recovery.......

I think unlike many other auto manufacturers, people buy Harleys for more emotional reasons than practical ones. Sure they will suffer like many other large companies but in the end it's the fan base that keeps companies like Harley alive.

they have been thru this plenty of times before in there 105 years of operation- in da 80s or seventies harley sold there companany but brought it back a thew years later and i dont think any thing like that will happin ever again they lernt there lesson from that -harley as it is today is to big and powerfull company and they will get thru this  without a doubt                                                                                     

http://www.harley-davidson.com/wcm/Content/Pages/H-D_History/history_1900s.jsp?locale=en_AU

Harley survived the great depression of the 1930's, can't see why they won't survive this one but they will definitely be battered and bruised.

All this talk of doom and gloom has the effect of making it bigger than it is, it in fact creates the very thing that recession feeds on "fear". I for one am gonna keep riding, and spending.

Any good managed company will survive iether by redirection, merger or down size and prepare for the upswing.........

Bt

I wonder how much our Harleys will be worth if the company suddenly folds...

Well I dunno about all that.
I reckon we all still need parts, oil filters, oil and another Harley t shirt, then there is gifts for Birthdays etc Harley aren't going broke what bullshit, they are just gunna pull in the belt for a bit like every other business and ride out the storm.
I can't believe Harley don't make a 250cc thats where the money is.
Ya listening Harley make a 250cc or 500cc bike for the learners you will make a squillion.
They may drop a few models but I can't see em going broke.
I spend too much in there for em to go broke and I bet every other Harley rider probably spends just as much.