I like your theory, I would not have thought a ratchet strap, when you take your bike to a dealer and they adjust belt do they need to know your weight to adjust belt or before you ride 2 up do need to readjust belt.
Is it just me or does the belt tension on an M8 seem to be tighter than that of an old twin cam like my 08 Electra glide.
Just looked at my owners manual and for my 2020 Ultra the deflection should be 9.5 -14.3 mm.
I’m probably just overthinking it.