So the Aussie dollar has dropped the last few days and it looks like it may stay down.our interest rates have dropped and there expected to stay down for a year or so.mining also reaching its peak. China questionable and the US looking like they have turned a corner.

all these add to pressures to force the dollar down. While its impossible to predict where it will end up . Fair value is considered to be around 85c.

That a 20% dropp. Now add to this the fact that both H1 and H5 bikes have dropped in value locally. A correction in the dollar like this may slow or stop the rush to import when the profit margin is reduced.

So what will this do to the market here ? I don't think it will recover to earlier values but as imports slow you might find values may hold a bit better.

i have my bike. Love it . No need to sell but I'm well aware of its reduced value lately.  Question is now may be the best time to jump into a bike. We may look back in a few years and remember this time as the golden period for buying second hand.

no real reason for this post. Just a beer in hand thinking out loud.

 

cheers

 

And I just realised I signed in under a old username I completely forgot about. Confused the crap out of me for a minute.

its a bit like real estate, so long as you buy and sell in the same market it usually works out. The problem is when you have bought in a high market and sell without updating in a down market.

buy 'em and keep 'em and resale doesn't matter a fuck

Philthy

I may be wrong ... and it wouldn't be the first time and possibly Choppa can shed some light but even if bike prices go up here that doesn't absolutely mean the bikes over in the states will go up and honest importers like Choppa who I think would keep there prices down could still bring in some nice bargins .

Tim .

Yep it's all cycles. Property,muscle cars, art, olive trees, emus,gold whatever.
There's always a period where anyone can turn a profit or atleast appear to be a financial wizard. When things slow it becomes more about quality or the smarts of the operator. Chopper would know this and know whats needed to continue to offer what customers want. The questionable operators will disappear quickly. Seen it all before across many markets

I thought I was wrong once but I made a mistake , Lol ... Thanks Choppa for shedding the light .

Tim .

 I've never bought a harley with the resale value in mind, it's not about the dollar with me it's all about the bike, the ride, the sensation that only a harley can give you, if your harley only has a dollar value in your mind then your not the right person for the bike, exceptions to the rule are those who make a living out of dealing in them.  

Yep we will survive for sure. But many need to think about cost and resale. It doesn't mean they have less interest in Harley's or riding. It's a big investment so people want to make the best choice they can. A lower dollar and recovering US will slow imports. So now ( or about 2 weeks ago) may be the best time to import second hand. For people that need to save a long time for their dream bike this is something to think about.

I reckon I fall into this category (devos post) as money is always fairly tight but I still need to have my toys. I always try to buy for the best price I can so if I want to upgrade or try a different style it wont hurt as much.

Im curious about the phrase....85c is considered to be fair value. By whom?

been looking at a few bikes in the usa  the prices have gone up .two years a go $5000 would get you a good 1980s Harley and now the same bike sells for $6500 plus so by the time you get it here and stuff around with it it will coast over $9000 ,..I see bikes here on ebay for sell around $10000 so why  inporting one

 Not sure what your ride is but I looked at a 2008 night train low klms but landed and registered would have cost around $20,000. I bought locally the same bike but Aussie and over $15,000 spent. But today even though my bike owes over $50,000 as it sits including new purchase price and still low klms and still Mint. I'm under no illusion that to sell today I would probably only get low   20,s . 

Thats the market

 

 I bought my bike to ride & enjoy, not for the resale value. More than likely it will be my only Harley ever owned by me, so I don't care that it's a grey import either.  It was in very good condition, my favourite colour,  had very low km's, and cheaper compared to the same year & model here locally. 

 there is one point made here which got my attention!  "If one importer is struggling to pay bills ........another chopperworks"

Made some enquiries as to getting a bike down to Vic.  No questions answered by one importer.  Hmmmmmm

Oh, Choppaweezer got back ASAP.  Open that shop Wayne!

To Devo

Not sure what your ride is but I looked at a 2008 night train low klms but landed and registered would have cost around $20,000. I bought locally the same bike but Aussie and over $15,000 spent. But today even though my bike owes over $50,000 as it sits including new purchase price and still low klms and still Mint. I'm under no illusion that to sell today I would probably only get low   20,s . 

Thats the market

Mate. you're VERY correct. I just 2 weeks ago sold my 5HD Australian delivered one ( mature) owner 2008 FXSTC Softail custom anniversary for $20K

Plenty of extras and impeccable history , a BEAUTIFUL bike indeed

I was offered $20K for it as far back as last October , but hadn't bought a "new" bike by that point.

That indeed is the market here in Australia from here on in , Perth is FLOODED with "grey imports", fuck I now have one myself !

 Got through the big depression dollar for dollar and loss of jobs this aint as bad for them as the depression was, they'll get through but if by some fucked up bit of misfortune they don't we'll be right there with them and we'll have to take some lessons from the Cubans on how to keep on the road.   

I dunno bout most things but all this grey bike shits just ridiculous ,I can by bikes 5hd cheaper than those other ones that come from somewhere in usa or were ever ,you may get a bike but no history an what state was it made for coz motors are not same as ours if was California bike very different engine ,personally not for me I have crate labels bike came in all papers regarding details of date landed here an so on service book and other details ,roadworthy cert to register just things after all ,but I dought that those grey bikes would come with these details ,like what state bike came from just for one and after all now its just a stamped grey import an nothing will ever change that just my 2 cents SHINGLES

I got the history of mine for its 299mile life, which dealer sold it originally etc plus you have the owners name on the title if you ever want to ring them.
I couldn't buy what I imported here in Oz in the condition or the price and apart from picking dickheads to import it worth doing again and again. Dealers here in WA wont touch em so the bonus is you get to know your bike real well

The dollar is at .97 now. That's around 10c off its peak. With further rate cuts flagged here and the US showing their cards saying the money printing press will be shut down and rates to push up on the horizon. Our dollar will likely go down. Not sure when but its on the horizon. Fact is H5 Harley's have lost a lot of value over the last 12 months but the profit margins on H1 have also dropped. Hell if a local H5 has dropped the imports have to otherwise why buy one. Fact is if you are careful you can make 10-20% importing from the dollar highs. If the dollar drops 10-20 % well.... Don't need to be a maths wizard to work that one out. Regardless the import trade will survive for the respected guys. Look at jap cars. The seal has been broken for Harley imports now so the stigma has gone and regardless of the dollar some will still import what they want. The masses of quick flippers will be the ones that disappear .
Cheers