Online: GGUser260

Harley's hurting

  • Rooster
    Rooster
    15 years ago

    91% sounds worse than it is. Don't get me wrong it is certainly not good, but its not all cash.

    This figure refers to net income, which has dropped from previously $228 mill to $19.8 million, now that is a lot but the difference is not all cash, but moving figures on paper.

    Of the $200 odd mil that HD are down, $28 mil is a write down of the business goodwill. That is the brand value. They didn't actually lose this money but get to write down their gross income because they are having a tough time and there finance business fugged things up. Its a paper loss only (shifting it from an asset to an expense on the balance sheet).

    The $72 mil is really a bad debt write off for bad loans made by there finance dept. And this would probably be carried forward from the previous year (I assume).

    So on the one hand we are comparing figures from the previous year to now, but those previous year figures were inflated by their finance dept giving loans for new bikes to all and sundry, despite the fact that they couldn't afford them. Out of the $200 mil, $100 mill is simply write offs not cash losses.

    What is even scarier is that HD's revenue is down 26%. So that is 26% less money is coming in compared to the same period last year, I bet there corresponding outgoings (costs or expenses) didn't decrease by the same margin during that period.

  • MapleLeafs
    MapleLeafs
    15 years ago
    Losses don't kill your business, lack of cash flow does. Spot on with the paper-loss thing.

    Sure they're feeling pain, but I'm sure they're still covering their variable cost (ie. gross profit), the pinch is in the overheads for the time being.

    I expect the coming year's stock won't be so cheap so hold on and look after your current scoots.